Changes in mortalities assumed for eggs, larvae and adults strongly affected extinction probabilities and the mean annual number of adults under both temperature scenarios. For all life stages and both temperature conditions studied, the extinction probability showed a logistic increase with increasing mortalities, whereas mean annual numbers of adults logistically decreased (Fig. 2, Table 2). Under temperature conditions as observed at Prappach, the strength in the shift in the termination of diapause towards the beginning of the year linearly decreased the extinction probabilities, whereas the mean annual population size hyperbolically increased for earlier terminations (Fig. 2, Table 2). In contrast, under conditions as observed at Hammelburg, an earlier termination of diapause had no effect on the extinction probability whereas size decreased in a quadratic manner (Fig. 2, Table 2). However, for both populations the latter effects on population size and extinction probability were very small.
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