and the chance of coalescing between any two generations (1/10), which gives a probability of coalescence of 0.0729. The distribution of the probabilities of a coalescent event occurring for two lineages in each of 30 generations for the case of 2N = 10 is shown in Fig. 3.24. It is important to note that only a single coalescent event is possible each generation since we are only considering two lineages.

In practice, the probabilities of coalescence are approximated using an exponential function (see Math box 3.2). As we have seen, the exact probability of

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