events would be comparable to the rate of coalescent events due to neutral sampling. The exponential approximation for the chance that a natural selection event occurs at generation t is then

v incoming branch for a single lineage and p(T

incoming branch

for k lineages on a continuous time scale. The chance that an incoming branch due to natural selection displaces one of k lineages at or before a certain time can then be approximated with the cumulative exponential distribution,

P(Ti incoming branch

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