Problem box Applying the binomial formula

Two independent laboratory populations of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster were observed for two generations. The populations each had a size of N = 24 individuals with an equal number of males and females. In the first generation, both populations were founded with fA = p = 0.5. In the second generation, one population showed fA = p = 0.458 and the other fA = p = 0.521. What are the chances of observing these allele frequencies after one generation of genetic drift?

Shifting our perspective, we can use the binomial to explore how variable allele-frequency changes under genetic drift should be. The variance of a Bernoulli or binomial random variable is:

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